Poker Odds Before The Flop

Once the flop has been dealt in Texas Hold'em, you'll be able to count your outs and know how likely it is your hand will improve. That will tell you whether you should stay in the hand or fold.
You can figure out your outs and odds for any hand, but here is a quick and dirty list of the most common scenarios:

Texas Hold'em Cheat SheetOdds Based on Outs after the Flop

If after the flop, you have:
Two outs: Your odds are 11 to 1 (about 8.5 percent)
A common scenario would be when you have a pair and you are hoping your pair becomes a three-of-a-kind (a set).
Four outs: Your odds are 5 to 1 (about 16.5 percent)
A common scenario would be when you are trying to hit an inside straight draw (there are 4 cards of one number that will complete the straight) or you have two pairs and you hope to make a full house (there are three cards remaining of one number and two of the other).
Eight outs: Your odds are 2 to 1 (about 31 percent)
A common scenario would be that you have an open-ended straight draw. There are four remaining cards of two different numbers that will complete your straight, on the high end and on the low end.
Nine outs: Your odds are 2 to 1 (about 35 percent)
This is the common scenario when you have a flush draw. Any of the nine remaining cards of the suit will give you a flush.

Fifteen outs: Your odds are 1 to 1 (about 54 percent)
A scenario for this is having a straight and flush draw, where either any of the nine remaining cards of the suit will give you a flush, while there are four cards remaining of each of two numbers that would complete a straight. However, you don't count the same cards twice as outs, so those of suit you hope to get don't count again.

The Rule of Four and Two

These odds only apply to counting both the turn and the river, so they assume you will stay in the hand until the showdown. Your odds are only about half as good for a single card draw, such taking the hit on the turn or taking the hit on the river. A common way of looking at the difference in the odds when you will be seeing two cards compared with one is called the Rule of 4 and 2.

After the flop, count your outs and multiply them by four to get your percentage odds. This doesn't give you an exact number, but it is quickly in the ballpark. With 15 outs, 4 x 15 = 55 percent you'll complete that straight or flush with the next two draws.

However, when you are calculating the odds that a single draw will improve your hand, you multiply the outs by two rather than 4. With 15 outs, 2 x 15 = 30 percent chance.

Are you good at math? Hmm, thought so. Neither am I.

For many poker players, doing math calculations is the last thing on their mind when they sit down at the felt. They're there to play and have fun!

However, pot odds are only useful if you are getting correct odds to call however. We thus need to try and figure out if our hand is better than a 43.5% favorite to win the pot, as it needs to win at least that amount of time to break even. Let's try to list what type of hands our opponents would be raising with pre-flop. EXPLANATION: Without possible straights and flushes, the only possible way to flop a pair or better is to have the flop hit your hand. So, I calculated the odds of the flop missing you and subtracting it from 100%. The odds of each flop card missing your pocket cards are 44-in-50, 43-in-49, and 42-in-48, respectively. The poker odds calculators on CardPlayer.com let you run any scenario that you see at the poker table, see your odds and outs, and cover the math of winning and losing poker hands. Calculating Poker Odds for Dummies - A FREE, #1 guide to mastering odds. How to quickly count outs to judge the value & chance of winning a hand in 2020.

Still, poker is more fun when you win, and it helps to know the winning potential of starting cards. Remember, there's a reason for the saying, 'Never draw to an inside straight.'

Because figuring percentages in your head would slow down the game, should you bring a pocket calculator to the table? No way!

Poker Odds Before Flop

Fortunately, some situations repeat quite often in Texas hold 'em, and it's easy to memorize the math involved. Once that's done, you can concentrate on everything else going on at the table.

Today, let's re-examine the math of some common hold 'em situations originally listed in a 2006 LuckyDog Poker column:

— Being dealt any pocket pair in the hole — 6 percent (one in 17) chance. Getting A-A, K-K, Q-Q, or J-J as your starting hole cards — 1.8 percent (one in 56).

— Improving any pocket pair to trips on the flop — 12 percent (one in eight). If you don't make trips on the flop, there's a 9 percent (one in 11) chance of doing so on the turn and river cards.

— A no-pair starting hand improving to a pair on the flop (either card) — 32 percent (one in three).

— Completing an open-ended straight after the flop — 34 percent (one in three). For instance, you hold 10-9, the flop is J-8-2, and the last two cards are 4-7.

— Being dealt suited hole cards (two spades of any rank, for example) — 24 percent (one in four). Being dealt suited connectors such as Q-J of hearts — 4 percent (one in 25).

— Hitting two cards of your suit on the flop — 11 percent (one in nine). Completing a flush after two cards of your suit come on the flop — 39 percent (one in 2.6).

— Being dealt A-K to start — 1.2 percent (one in 83). With A-K in the pocket, hitting an ace or king by the river — 50 percent (one in two).

These numbers identify your chances of receiving certain starting cards and hitting specific hands, but that's not the whole story. Knowing these percentages allows you to calculate 'pot odds,' which gives you a mathematical reason for staying or folding.

For example, let's say after the flop you have an open-ended straight draw with a 34 percent (one in three) chance of making the straight by the end of the hand — 17 percent (one in six) chance of hitting on the turn card, plus 17 percent again to hit on the river.

Poker Odds Before The Flop Game

In this case, as long as there is five times as much in the pot as the amount you must put in on a single bet, you're getting sufficient pot odds to stay in. In low-stakes limit games, calling usually is automatic. In no-limit, however, an opponent's big bet often negates your odds and you should fold.

Now, about those inside straight draws: Is it true you should 'never draw to an inside straight?' Actually, no!

Sure, most of the time you should fold because the chances of hitting your straight on the next card are slim (11 to one against). But on rare occasions, you'll have the proper pot odds to make the draw. Do the math!

Poker Odds Before The Flop Game

E-mail your poker questions and comments to [email protected] for use in future columns. To find out more about Russ Scott and read previous LuckyDog Poker columns, visit creators.com or luckydogpoker.com.